How much will the Vikings need to pay Justin Jefferson to sign him again?
I guess it’s time to discuss Justin Jefferson’s contract predicament again, as the main NFL media has determined that his choice to miss the Minnesota Vikings’ voluntary organized practice qualifies as news.

Supporters of the Vikings have probably practiced this drill a thousand times by now. The same speculations were rife during the previous offseason, but no agreement could be made. The upcoming free agency of Kirk Cousins and the likelihood that Jefferson wouldn’t want to play with a different quarterback were hot topics of conversation. Unfortunately, this cycle will continue until Jefferson puts pen to paper and signs a contract extension with Minnesota.

Regarding Minnesota’s ability to re-sign Jefferson, I have no concerns. The team intends to extend Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, the general manager has stated on multiple occasions. He obviously isn’t able to speak with absolutes. He has, nevertheless, shown all of his strength without fully committing to something that hasn’t occurred yet.

Unfortunately, threatening to sit him out is Jefferson’s only real option if the Vikings want to keep him. If Jefferson is tagged twice, he will receive $29.7 million in 2026; else, the anticipated 2025 WR franchise tag is $24.8 million. That’s a steal for the best receiver in the NFL. Minnesota might even put up a $42.8 million third tag for him in 2027. This offseason, A.J. Brown signed a three-year, $96 million contract extension with the Philadelphia Eagles. If those three years averaged out to be roughly $32.5 million each season, the contract would climb slightly.

The Vikings shouldn’t be concerned about losing Jefferson to free agency because of the franchise tag option. The best outcome, though, would be a long-term extension that would satisfy Jefferson and enable the team to make clear financial plans for the future. What sort of agreement then completes this move?

 

To help Jefferson know what to expect, let’s look at four contracts.

THE MOST EXPENDABLE WRS
It makes sense, of course, to contrast Jefferson with the highest-paid players in the same position. Amon-Ra St. Brown and A.J. Brown recently signed contracts with the top two. The three players—Brown in 2019; Jefferson in 2020; and St. Brown in 2021—were selected in consecutive drafts.

Given his age and contract status, St. Brown is a more accurate comparison. Brown is roughly two years older than Jefferson (25 in June) and St. Brown (25 in October), who both turn 27 in June. While Brown signed his first extension in 2022 and then another this offseason, St. Brown also signed his four-year, $120 million extension following his rookie contract.

Here is Over the Cap’s version of St. Brown’s contract:

 

First thing to note is that St. Brown’s salary guarantee only extends until 2025. His salary has rolling guarantees that ensure he will receive his entire 2026 salary in 2025 and $7.4 million of his 2027 salary in 2026. The stated figures—$77 million guaranteed over four years and $120 million overall—appear excellent. Nevertheless, by cutting him after the 2026 campaign, the Detroit Lions will be able to save money.

Brown has an even more convoluted contract. Below is an explanation of his contract following his extension:

 

Brown was bound until 2026 by his previous contract, which he signed. Consequently, even though he is now the “highest paid receiver,” he won’t begin to receive that money until 2027, when the cap is expected to increase by 23% to $314 million from its current level. Translating that into the current cap environment, the annual cost comes to $26 million.

In 2025, the first year of a new Jefferson deal, it would be $26.5 million instead of the projected cap. Moreover, only sixteen million of the ninety-two million are guaranteed. But the primary benefit of this new deal for Brown is that it protects the remaining portion of his 2022 contract. That means that every dollar is virtually guaranteed through 2026. With the terms of the contract and the amount of money they are investing in the future, the Eagles would find it difficult to let go of him quickly.